Define KPIs and metrics that match your goals

Turn a business goal into a short set of well-defined KPIs, with formulas, data sources, guardrails and the traps to avoid.

Change note: Initial version

Prompt

Help me define the right metrics for this goal.

Goal: {{goal}}
Business or team context: {{context}}
Data I can realistically get: {{data_sources}}
Reporting cadence: {{cadence}}

Deliver:
1. One north-star metric and why it reflects the goal better than the obvious alternatives.
2. Three to five supporting KPIs, split into leading indicators (move first, controllable) and lagging indicators (outcomes).
3. A definition table with these columns: Metric, Precise formula (numerator, denominator, time window), Data source, Owner role, Target-setting approach, Cadence.
4. Two guardrail metrics that would reveal if we hit the main KPI by harming something else.
5. Ways each KPI can be gamed or misread (vanity effects, denominator games, Simpson's paradox, seasonality) and how to prevent that.
6. What I should not measure yet and why.
7. A suggested first dashboard layout: what goes at the top, what trends, what segments.

Be specific; avoid generic KPIs unless you explain why they apply here. If my goal is fuzzy, ask up to three questions to sharpen it, but still propose a first version.

Variables

• {{goal}}Goaltext

  Default: Improve customer retention for our subscription meal-kit service this year

• {{context}}Contextlong

  Default: Direct-to-consumer subscription business, about 30,000 active subscribers, weekly deliveries, customers can skip weeks or pause.

  Business model, size, stage.

• {{data_sources}}Available datatext

  Default: Order database, customer support tickets, email platform, post-delivery rating

• {{cadence}}Reporting cadenceselect

  Options: Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly

  Default: Weekly

Example output

**North star**: 12-week subscriber retention rate for each signup cohort (share still active, not paused, 12 weeks after the first delivery). It reflects durable value, unlike raw active subscribers, which can rise from heavy acquisition while retention falls.

**Leading indicators**
- Second-delivery rate: share of new subscribers who receive a second box within 21 days.
- Skip rate: skipped weeks / eligible weeks, per subscriber.
**Lagging**: 12-week retention; 6-month customer lifetime.

**Definition (excerpt)**
| Metric | Formula | Source | Owner | Cadence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Second-delivery rate | new subs with 2+ delivered boxes by day 21 / new subs with a first delivery 21+ days ago | Orders DB | Lifecycle | Weekly |
| Skip rate | skipped weeks / (active weeks) | Orders DB | Product | Weekly |

**Guardrails**: Net promoter score of post-delivery rating (4-5 share); gross margin per box, so discounts do not buy retention.

**Gaming and misreading**: Pausing instead of cancelling inflates retention. Report pause share alongside. Compare cohorts of the same age only.

**Do not measure yet**: Recipe-level ratings per customer until volume per recipe is sufficient.

**Dashboard**: Top: retention curve by cohort. Middle: leading indicators trend. Bottom: segments by acquisition channel and plan size.

Notes

Precise formulas with numerator, denominator and window avoid the metric definition arguments that derail reporting. Add your current numbers to get target suggestions.