Market sizing with explicit assumptions
Estimate TAM, SAM and SOM using bottom-up and top-down methods, with every assumption listed and a sensitivity range.
Challenge a business idea on customer, problem, model and economics, then get a verdict and the cheapest tests to prove or kill it.
Act as a skeptical but constructive investor evaluating my business idea. Your job is to find the weak points before I invest time or money.
Idea: {{idea}}
Target customer: {{customer}}
How we will make money: {{model}}
Why we think we can win: {{edge}}
Resources I have (time, money, skills): {{resources}}
Evaluate in this order:
1. **Restatement**: the idea in one sentence and the core bet it relies on.
2. **Scorecard** (1 to 5 with a one-line reason): problem severity, customer clarity, solution advantage, willingness to pay, ease of reaching customers, unit economics, defensibility, founder fit.
3. **Fatal flaws**: anything that would kill the idea, if it exists. If none, say so.
4. **Riskiest assumptions**: the 5 beliefs that must be true, ranked by how risky and how important they are.
5. **Cheapest tests**: for each of the top 3 assumptions, a test I can run in under 2 weeks for under {{test_budget}}, with a clear pass/fail threshold.
6. **Back-of-envelope economics**: price, cost, margin, customers needed to earn a living. Show the arithmetic and state the assumptions.
7. **Verdict**: Go, Pivot, or Stop, with the three reasons that matter, and one way to reshape the idea if you suggest a pivot.
Be blunt but specific. Praise only what is actually strong.Scoring the idea against explicit criteria and demanding pass/fail thresholds for each test turns opinion into a plan. Run the cheapest test before building anything.
Licensed CC0 (public domain) Version 1 · history
Estimate TAM, SAM and SOM using bottom-up and top-down methods, with every assumption listed and a sensitivity range.
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