Market sizing with explicit assumptions
Estimate TAM, SAM and SOM using bottom-up and top-down methods, with every assumption listed and a sensitivity range.
Write a one-to-two-page decision memo that frames the choice, compares options honestly, states a recommendation and names the risks.
Write a decision memo for {{audience}} on this decision: {{decision}}.
Background and facts:
{{background}}
Options on the table: {{options}}
Decision criteria that matter most: {{criteria}}
Deadline for the decision: {{deadline}}
Structure the memo exactly like this:
1. **Decision required** (one sentence, including who decides and by when).
2. **Recommendation** (up front, two or three sentences with the main reason).
3. **Context** (no more than 5 sentences: only what the reader needs).
4. **Options** (each option: what it is, cost and effort, upside, downside, what must be true for it to be the right call).
5. **Comparison table** against my criteria, using plain words rather than scores where scores would be false precision.
6. **Risks and how to reduce them** for the recommended option.
7. **What would change my mind**: the specific facts or events that would flip the recommendation.
8. **Next steps** with owners if approved.
Style: plain, direct, short sentences. Include the strongest argument against the recommendation and answer it. Do not invent numbers; where a figure is unknown write "[need: ...]" so I can fill it in.Putting the recommendation first and requiring a counterargument forces clarity and makes the memo readable by busy executives. The placeholder rule avoids made-up figures.
Licensed CC0 (public domain) Version 1 · history
Estimate TAM, SAM and SOM using bottom-up and top-down methods, with every assumption listed and a sensitivity range.
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